Tuesday 18 March 2014

Today Ukraine, Tomorrow UK?

The people of the Ukraine obviously got it wrong when they voted for a government that preferred friendship with the Russian Federation to friendship with the European Union. Their democratic decision was not respected.
The people of the Crimea have voted overwhelmingly to cut their ties with the Ukraine and resume its historic ties to Russia. This vote conveniently for Russia, and inconveniently for the NATO alliance, allows Russia to keep its warm water naval base in the Crimea.
At the same time the United Kingdom government is bending over backwards to keep Scotland as part of the Union, being prepared to maximise devolution to maintain a political union about which neither Scots, nor English, nor Welsh, nor Irish are especially enthusiastic.
The political class wants the union for military reasons.
The question is: would Scotland be allowed to secede from the Union?
Likewise, if the United Kingdom held a referendum concerning a withdrawal from the European Union, and the electorate unwisely voted to keep Europe at arms length, would the vote be respected?
These days, since the Iraq fiasco, direct invasion has lost popularity with our masters. The number of armed forces personnel is being cut in both the UK and the USA. It is much easier to contract out violence to (paid) fanatics and mercenaries. We have seen how this has worked in the destabilisation and destruction of Syria (host to Russia's only Mediterranean naval base).
Indeed, the NATO - AlQaeda alliance is well cemented, having being forged in Afghanistan against the Russians, and continued with degrees of success in Chechnya, Bosnia, Libya, and today in Syria and Iraq.
The use of violent authoritarian racists in the Ukraine to overthrow a democratically elected government is a new twist.
Indeed, if NATO and the European Union wished to bring a rebellious Scotland, or an isolationist England to heal, who would they arm first, their jihadi clients amongst the Sunni fifth column, or a pseudo racist group amongst the indigenous population, created to destabilise, punish and control?
Should the population persist in voting the wrong way, we can be sure that the political class would let us understand the consequences before too long.

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